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We connect signals, context, scenarios, and evidence so leaders can decide what to do next.

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Methodology

Intelligence is only useful when the evidence and judgment can be examined.

Our method keeps source, fact, interpretation, assumption, scenario, and recommendation visibly separate.

The method1. Decision framing2. Source design3. Analysis4. Confidence5. Decision output6. Updating

1.Begin with the decision

We define the choice, the decision owner, the deadline, the consequence of delay, and what a useful answer must enable. A broad topic such as “healthcare AI” is not yet an intelligence question. “Should this hospital invest in an AI-assisted medication reconciliation workflow during the next budget cycle?” is.

A good intelligence brief is narrow enough to guide a choice and broad enough to expose what could change it.

2.Build a source plan

Sources are selected for relevance, authority, freshness, independence, and proximity to the underlying event. The plan may include public records, company materials, regulatory documents, research, patents, market data, expert interviews, and client-provided information.

Primary firstPrefer filings, laws, standards, direct announcements, original research, and first-party evidence.
Contradiction is usefulDisagreement is recorded and examined rather than smoothed into false certainty.
Date the eventPublication date and event date are tracked separately when timing matters.
Protect client contextInternal information is governed by the engagement’s confidentiality rules.

3.Move from evidence to interpretation

Analysts compare signals, identify patterns, map capabilities, test alternative explanations, and develop scenarios. Each material claim should be traceable to evidence or clearly labeled as interpretation.

Five layers remain distinct

L1

Fact: what the evidence directly supports.

L2

Interpretation: what the fact likely means in context.

L3

Assumption: what must be true for the analysis to hold.

L4

Scenario: a plausible future and its trigger conditions.

L5

Recommendation: the proposed action based on the first four layers.

See these layers in action in the Evidence Map and the Scenario Studio.

4.Express confidence honestly

Confidence reflects source quality, source agreement, evidence completeness, and the stability of the environment. It is not a claim of certainty. Material uncertainty is written into the recommendation.

Read the confidence framework

5.Deliver for the decision moment

The final output is structured so a leader can see the decision, recommended move, supporting evidence, alternatives, risks, dependencies, and next milestones without searching through the document.

  • Executive answer
  • Decision context
  • Evidence base
  • Scenarios and triggers
  • Recommendation and rationale
  • Risks and counterarguments
  • 30, 60, and 90-day actions

6.Update when the picture changes

Some decisions require ongoing monitoring. New evidence may increase or decrease confidence, invalidate an assumption, activate a scenario trigger, or change the recommended action. Updates should show what changed from the previous version.

Bring us a decision